Why Romney will win Florida

Every day, and even twice in a day, there seems to be a new poll released showing the presidential race in Florida tied or with one candidate over the other by a few points.

Barring a major event or “October Surprise,” I believe that a comparison of the state’s political realities four years ago to how they stand today is a much better barometer of how the state will perform this year. And it clearly stands to benefit Mitt Romney.

Here are the facts:

  • FACT: In 2008, Democrats enjoyed an edge of about 700,000 registered voters over Republicans in Florida. Today, that edge has diminished to about 450,000, as the amount of actual registered Democrats has fallen by approximately 173,000 and Republican registration has increased by about 74,000. This represents a net loss in Democrat voter registration edge of 250,000 since 2008.
    (NOTE: registration closes in a few weeks, which means numbers may shift slightly before then)
  • FACT: Obama outspent McCain in television advertising by almost 4-to-1 in Florida ($37 million to $10 million). Obama’s spending represented 79% of total 2008 presidential campaign tv ad buys in Florida.
  • FACT: Obama defeated McCain by 204,577 votes in Florida, or 2.8 percentage points (51% to 48.2%).

So let’s put these figures into perspective:

  • Despite a Democrat voter registration edge of 700,000 people in 2008, Obama only defeated McCain by 204,577 votes.  Since then, that 700,000 Democrat voter registration edge has dropped by 250,000. In order to win, the Democrats will have to either increase Democrat turnout beyond 2008’s historic figures or win over more Republicans and Independents.
  • Despite outspending McCain by almost 4-to-1 and essentially buying 79% of all presidential election tv ads in the state, Obama only defeated McCain by 2.8%. This year, on the other hand, Romney and friendly outside groups are expected to outspend Obama, especially in the last few weeks of the campaign.

And then there are other factors that should give Republicans even more hope.

First–and I know I am not alone here–I cannot name a single friend, friend-of-a-friend, or person that I’ve heard about who voted for McCain in 2008 who will now vote for Obama.  However, I know of several who voted for Obama who will not vote for him again and will either vote Romney or abstain altogether.  Obama’s failure to keep his promises to rescue the economy, improve foreign relations, and ease partisan friction have clearly had an effect on many who supported him in 2008 on a platform of “Hope and Change.”

Second, the Romney campaign has a much better Florida operation in place than McCain ever did.  Let’s not forget that the McCain campaign was largely run by Backstabber Charlie Crist flunkies who all but sabotaged the race for John McCain in Florida after he did not tap the weasel Crist as his running mate.  #thatsrightisaidit

Remember when Republicans on the ground were told there were no more yard signs, stickers,and other campaign collateral weeks before the election only to find out a few days after McCain’s loss that tens of thousands of them sat unused in a Jacksonville warehouse? I do. Despite these brazen acts of political malpractice, McCain lost by only 2.8%. It’s a miracle he didn’t lose by twice that.

In contrast, the Romney campaign is focused, disciplined, and run by conservatives and competent campaign managers like Molly Donlin and Brett Doster who possess a genuine desire to save the country.

Lastly, the The Republican Party of Florida this year doesn’t have a Crist-appointed corrupt chairman misspending or sitting on money that should be used to elect Republicans, and there won’t be a spiteful political prostitute of a governor extending early voting hours to disadvantage and get back at the Republican nominee for not picking him as his running mate.

These are all factors that are not necessarily reflected in polls, but that should be kept in mind before we conservatives decide to declare this race all but over.  But by no means should we rest on our laurels.  We must continue to remain engaged and maximize our efforts.

Five weeks is still an eternity in politics. Anything can happen. But let’s not forget that Governor Reagan decisively pulled ahead of the incumbent only a few days before the 1980 election.

And in four years he turned around an economy and geopolitical landscape far worse than the one Barack Obama inherited–and did so without a congress controlled by his party, a luxury Obama enjoyed his first two years.


5 thoughts on “Why Romney will win Florida

  1. I’m a registered Democrat in FL who is voting for Romney. I wouldn’t dare admit it to my friends or family, but curiously enough none of them are shaking their pom poms for Obama this go around either. I wouldn’t be surprised if I wasn’t the only one (secretly) supporting Romney. Who by the way I am not rah rah about either, but Obama just broke my heart. This middle east thing was the nail in the coffin for me.

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  3. Hm. Well the fundamental flaw in thi argument is Republicans will turn out to vote in the same numbers as 4 years ago. I am not convinced that will be the case. The base hates Romney, even if they are trying to put on a brave face. Obama have broken a few (unrealistic) Democrat hearts but Romney repulses a significant part of Republican voters. I’m betting many have already decided to stay home. Fine with me. Next time pick better candidates to choose from.

    • nice “concern” post kate. The base hates Romney? Guess what, we hate Obama more. Get ready for 2010, part 2.

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